After years of campaigning from supporters of retail employees all across the United Kingdom, today Prime Minister Rishi Sunak launched a law to make assaulting a shop worker a standalone criminal offence.

The Westminster based government website stated that: “Perpetrators could be sent to prison for up to six months, receive an unlimited fine and be banned from going back to the shop where they committed their crimes, with Criminal Behaviour Orders barring them visiting specific premises.” (11)

Furthermore “Breaching an order is also a criminal offence and carries a five-year maximum prison sentence. For the most serious cases of assault, such as causing grievous bodily harm with intent, offenders could face a life sentence.” (11)

Home Secretary James Cleverly supports the increased use of facial recognition technology to help catch perpetrators and prevent shoplifting in the first place. The official statement explained how “Backed by a £55.5m investment over the next four years, the police will be able to further roll this new state of the art technology. This will include £4m (four million pounds) for bespoke mobile units that can be deployed to high streets across the country with live facial recognition used in crowded areas to identify people wanted by the police – including repeat shoplifters.” (11)

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his team support the Pegasus initiative to use private business collaboration to tackle retail crime which is on the rise In England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

Business and police strategic partnership launches Pegasus to tackle organised retail crime in UK

The UK’s Policing Minister Chris Phip and Home Office, Sussex Police and Crime Commissioner Katy Bourne and several high street retailers have teamed up to create a new partnership called Pegasus to help tackle serious organised retail crime.

The initiative launched in October 2023 brings together Aldi, B&Q, Boots, Co-op, John Lewis Partnership, Lidl, M&S, Mitie Security (providing secretariat for Pegasus), Morrisons, NBCS (National Business Crime Solution), Next, Primark, Sainsbury’s, Tesco, and TJX (who owns TK Maxx stores).

North Wales Police Chief Amanda Blakeman heads up a police team of specialist officers entitled OPAL who oversee serious national organised acquisitive crime. The OPAL team will work on the Pegasus initiative which aims to provide communication and intelligence on criminals and also develop prevention processes and effective enforcement action.

“Retailers will agree ways to capture information that can be shared and analysed to create intelligence packages for police forces to target and track perpetrators.” stated Katy Bourne, Sussex Police and Crime Commissioner.

Through the Pegasus collaboration “We continue to target those prolific and habitual offenders whose behaviour causes misery and takes profit from our communities and retailers. Local police forces assess each report through a threat, harm and risk model to determine their police response and will deploy resources where they can be most effective in catching offenders and keeping people safe.” explained Amanda Blakeman North Wales Police Chief Constable.

Better communication between retailers, security forces and the police will undoubtedly make an impact on reducing the rising retail crime levels experienced by shops and their customer service teams. Reducing stock loss from stolen goods will save consumers money in future seasons.

Will Pegasus work?

In the United Kingdom it is important to consider taking a holistic view of solving unwanted property crime problems in the community, on a national scale. It makes sense to prevent shoplifting as much as possible and when it does occur, responding swiftly and proportionality is key. Ensuring that there are consequences which are severe enough to both deter future criminal activity and protect retail workers and members of the public is an essential and logical way forward.

There are many social factors that contribute to men and women becoming dishonest shoppers. The reality is that shoplifting is often a symptom of other aspects of society that are not functioning well. Most people choose a crime free life if they have what they need to live well, then there is no incentive to break the law.

In England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland we need to ensure that families are adequately supported with healthcare and local resources so child poverty, neglect and deprivation is a thing of the past. Youth clubs, theatres and sports facilities play an important role in constructively occupying free time for teenagers and it is important to look at funding these beneficial centres properly. The impact of ‘austerity’ and other recent crisis where council cutbacks have cut services has diminished positive social and creative opportunities for many young people.

That is not to say that young people are responsible for shoplifting problems but every adult who turns to crime for whatever reason was a young person originally. If we can help our citizens stay on healthy pathways, they will become law abiding and accomplished adults who give to the community rather than take from their fellow consumers and shopkeepers.

If good quality basic and further education is free and there are appropriate training opportunities for everyone, young men and women can choose suitable and decent employment and enjoy the benefits it brings.

The National Health Service is an outstanding institution in many ways and is full of amazing people much like the UK police force. We need to provide better mental health support that includes everyone in society. Anyone with addiction problems need to be able to receive the right help and guidance. This will help to reduce the number of incidences of petty crime in our businesses.

In order to eliminate the need for people living in England, Wales and other places in the UK to feel the desire to leave stores without paying for goods, we need a high standard of living for everyone. We need political policies to deliver policies that reduce poverty. All citizens need to have access to adequate social services help, which is properly funded.

Providing more affordable housing all across the country for people of all ages is key. Everyone needs to be able to buy basic living essentials without worrying about their grocery or household bills. When Great Britain and Northern Ireland can achieve this goal, we will see shoplifting become a very rare occurrence.

Pegasus in Greek mythology is depicted as a winged white stallion horse symbolising transformation and freedom. We hope that the Pegasus partnership provides opportunities to successfully unify against thieves who cost the hundreds of thousands of professionals who work in both high street and out of town businesses, a lot of time, money and stress.

Investing tax payers millions in big brother technology can lead to crime problems just relocating to an area wherever the security presence and CCTV surveillance is most ineffective. Facial recognition could be interpreted as an invasion of privacy by law abiding citizens who are then paying over again in a variety of ways including putting an expensive ‘digital sticking plaster’ on deeper societal problems. We need to ask ourselves what kind of culture and community do we want to be?

Unless we invest in ways to raise the standard of living for all individuals living in the British Isles, we could find that however senior and sophisticated the latest government endorsed ‘combined shop manager and police officer strategy’ that is proposed, it is ultimately like recovering a stolen needle in a haystack or worse, as effective as shutting the door after the horse has bolted.

Time will tell whether this retail network collaboration and all the technology that can be brought into crime prevention finally turns the tables on shoplifting in the UK. As enthusiastic English consumers with a retail background and a modest spending budget, we really hope Pegasus is a winner.

Companies opening their doors to sell goods to the public need to create a safe and positive place to work for all their employees.

Retail assistants often earn a minimum wage and often work unsociable hours and many have to travel at night or in the early hours of the morning. Shopkeepers and their support teams were brave and hardworking during uncertain times and kept the country going during the recent pandemic.

The conscientious retail key workers opened their supermarkets and boutique shutters and personally delivered supplies to householders staying inside throughout the covid lockdowns and beyond, when many millions of citizens stayed at home to avoid getting sick.

At HotEnough.com we know of one person (who wishes to remain anonymous) who resigned from their sales assistant position with a well-known local village store chain in Hampshire, after taking time off work, due to being physically assaulted by a shoplifter. The thief became aggressive when asked to leave the community supermarket after the ‘customer’ had repeatedly helped themselves to the shop’s shelves without any intention of paying.

An experience like this can leave the most confident employee understandably traumatised and unwilling to put themselves back into that work environment, without the proper support of their managers and also effective ongoing safety measures.

A manager at a discount grocery retailer in Sussex who doesn’t wish to be named told us at HotEnough.com that “The police don’t always attend when we contact them, as they are often too busy, as they (members of the police services) are overstretched.”

The same grocery store manager described how recently shoplifters tried to press charges against his staff member, after an angry scuffle incident occurred between an employee and a shoplifter. The store assistant had become frustrated at the high level of alcohol theft stock loss, which was an illegal activity that had been replicated by the gang over a few weeks.

The store assistant had tried to personally stop the group of regular thieves from clearing the shelves of luxury liquor, resulting in an angry and aggressive situation. During the scuffle the store assistant was physically hurt (but luckily not severely). Outrageously the store assistant was then falsely accused of physically assaulting the shoplifter. This incident occurred in an expensive and desirable area of Sussex which is usually extremely peaceful. This crime shows how shoplifting is a problem that is found right across the country.

“Theft offences increased by 9% to 1.8 million offences compared with the previous year.” This statistic “included a 32% increase in shoplifting offences.” Reported Pete Jones on behalf of the Office for National Statistics at the end of January this year. (1)

The Union of Shop, Distributive and Allied Workers (USDAW) is the UK based shopworkers workers union with over 350,000 members. USDAW think the latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) shoplifting figures are “alarming” and they are “deeply concerned”. (2)

A USDAW statement reads: “Our annual survey found that three-quarters of retail workers suffered abuse from customers, with far too many experiencing threats and violence. Theft from shops and armed robbery were triggers for a third of these incidents. Particularly concerning is that just over half of those who did the survey said they were not confident that reporting these issues will make any difference.” (2)

Police services to tackle shoplifting are under pressure financially

Police resources are more stretched than ever as their central government budgets are cut in real terms due to inflation and other economic factors in many areas. Many local councils in England (such as councils in Hampshire and Sussex) are increasing council tax to be able to afford to maintain essential services, including employing more police officers in certain areas.

However, as there are many experienced officers who are of retirement age and therefore simultaneously leaving the police service, so it is currently hugely challenging to lead police forces in the UK and achieve all of the set targets. Brave and talented men and women in the UK’s police force do an amazing job helping the public keep safe and gain access to specific crime support services whenever they are needed.

In an interview with The Guardian this January “Gavin Stephens, the chair of the National Police Chiefs’ Council, said police were cutting crime but faced severe funding pressures and a £3.2bn cash shortfall.” Dodd explains that in 2010 austerity a reduction in 20,000 police officers and a change in the demands of policing in a digital age has meant enormous pressure on services despite in recent years an increase in recruitment into the force and a long overdue 7% pay rise. (3)

This fantastic work that the UK police force carry out consistently serving the public can be seen in the statistical reductions in ‘total crime’ in the UK this year down 17% compared with the same period in 2020. This is despite police officers often covering for other social and healthcare services which have diminished or disappeared because of local and government funding issues. (1)

It is worth considering that there will be many, possibly hundreds or thousands, of unreported crimes and shoplifting incidents that go unreported each year. Retail managers and members of the public that become the victims of shoplifting criminals sometimes do not wish, for a variety of reasons (including believing that the police will not be able or willing to personally respond) to choose to involve the police services and pursue justice.

Nationally the police are striving to cover many urgent matters in order to protect the public in the communities up and down the country 24 hours a day and 7 days a week. Police services are not always able to attend shoplifting incidents and sadly police supervisors are not always able to see retail stock loss (and protecting retail employees from abuse) as a priority in these difficult times.

Simultaneously the courts have been catching up after the challenges of lockdowns and covid regulations. Consequently, the underfunded prison system is under more pressure than ever. Convicting and jailing folk who commit property fraud, in whatever way, is not a priority government focus at this time. People who are intent on stealing clearly know that this is the situation and that they can more easily exploit the system for their own personal gain.

The Guardian highlights how Alex Chalk “set out measures for criminals facing jail sentences of under 12 months to receive suspended sentences and community service, with shoplifters one of the groups of offenders expected to benefit most from the change.”

New solutions are possible to deter shoplifting

CCTV technology has been employed by well-established retailers such as Marks and Spencer for decades and is a very effective tool in providing evidence to gain a shoplifting conviction in court. The Metropolitan Police have a very sophisticated system for tracking criminals using London’s city streets and businesses CCTV network.

The Met are also using “facial recognition technology to target London’s most prolific offenders.” according to Sky News and the recent BBC documentaries on the brilliant work of the Metropolitan Police also demonstrate how clever officers utilise the latest technology in order to catch and prosecute criminals. (4) (5)

More resources will enable forces to tackle more crime in regional town centres and out of town malls. Many councils have increased council tax to the maximum this year and in some areas like Hampshire this allows them to employ another 50 police officers this season (although it was not clear in this figure how many in the force had left or retired this year.)

Shoplifting union USDAW supports a House of Commons petition that “seeks to protect retail workers from violence, threats and abuse by extending the Scottish protection of workers law to the rest of the UK.”  (2)

The Union of Shop, Distributive and Allied Workers (USDAW) outlines how during this election year in England that Shadow Home Secretary Yvette Cooper committed the next Labour Government to: “13,000 more neighbourhood police with guaranteed patrols in town centres; Respect Orders to ban repeat offenders from town centres; a standalone offence for assaulting a worker serving the public and (we) will end the £200 threshold for investigating and prosecuting shop theft.” (2)

Whether Labour’s strategy can be delivered depends on who wins the election and what central government finances are actually available and allocated in practice. If Labour succeeds in becoming elected (or another alternative to the current Conservative party are elected) they may seek to reintroduce a law to give retail workers more protection from criminals.

A private members’ bill that was proposed by Alex Norris representing Labour for Nottingham North in 2020 which aimed to “make certain offences, including malicious wounding, grievous or actual bodily harm and common assault, aggravated when perpetrated against a retail worker in the course of their employment; to make provision about the sentencing of persons convicted of such aggravated offences; and for connected purposes.”

The private members bill designed to increase protection through increased penalties for abusing retail workers did not progress to a second reading in the House of Commons and was effectively ‘dropped’ by the Conservative UK government. No alternative legislative solution, apart from working closely with corporations to find ways of reducing shoplifting and retail crime, has been suggested by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his team at present.

We hope that the conservative’s policy of encouraging retail collaboration whilst also trying to maintain police services on a budget will be enough to significantly improve the working environment of millions of shop workers.

Facebook Marketplace is meant to be a local ‘neighbour to neighbour’ site. This sales system is created in a similar vein to the local newspaper advertising concept, which has been so popular all over the western world, before online social media existed. (1)

Therefore, commercial sellers i.e. individuals selling multiple expensive items like cars, are not suitable for this platform. It would be easy for Facebook Marketplace to identify an account with numerous expensive and similar items for sale and ‘pause’ any selling activity.

It is a simple business development task to program Facebook Marketplace (or any other online selling platform) to require additional financial verification for certain accounts. This could apply to any commercial sellers or accounts selling multiple products, to further protect ordinary domestic account users who want to trade personal items, in the traditional way.

It is very possible for Facebook Marketplace to delete many thousands of untrustworthy seller’s accounts on their site. Programming extra security code into the process of serving Facebook Marketplace content will help to eradicate a situation whereby an unsuspecting UK resident becomes a victim of ‘phishing’ or some other financial trickery. Phishing is when an honest person gives away their banking details or downloads a virus onto their computer, unintentionally.

Age controls, such as introducing an initial government identity (ID) sign in feature, can automatically check if a user’s age meets the criteria for an online sales platform. This additional security method could be a way of preventing vulnerable young people being victims of fraud unnecessarily.

It would not be difficult to install an initial ID government sign in step. It could be rolled out across the whole selling website and would only take experienced programmers a few days to set up. More official government legal regulation is needed to support parental controls and ensure minors are not able to be unwittingly financially manipulated by scammers online. Age controls are already normal practice for signing into many online organisations in several countries in Europe, such as Denmark.

Facebook Marketplace is owned by Meta and they could afford to introduce an identity checked secure payment system for buyers and sellers to work alongside their e-commerce trading website. They already have a payment system now called Meta Pay (which used to be called Facebook Pay) which also covers payments on Instagram and Messenger (a system within Facebook which is like direct email). Given the current level of scams advertised on the platforms at present, many folks will be understandably hesitant to upload their banking details to Facebook. (2)

Facebook Marketplace and other online trading platforms such as eBay, Etsy, Folksy, NotOnTheHighStreet, Vinted and Amazon are a big part of retail sales in the UK. Undoubtedly, they are here to stay in our modern cultural life. It is wise to listen and look out in the press for new schemes and scams that can ruin an otherwise modern, fun, efficient and often worthwhile way of shopping in our busy daily lives.

Facebook Marketplace can absolutely afford the time and resources to do more to prevent fraud on their platform now. Politicians need to put pressure on law makers to encourage legislation to ensure there are more security checks on the site to rid Facebook Marketplace of fraudsters and introduce more protection for innocent consumers across the United Kingdom and beyond, who are unwittingly becoming victims of these greedy and wicked scammers.

In November 2023 the Competition and Markets Authority introduced legislative guidelines to ensure that “Meta will no longer be able to use certain data obtained from competing businesses that advertise on its platforms to gain an unfair advantage.” This means that Meta cannot use marketing data obtained from businesses using its advertising services. This is important as the CMA states that Meta has 10 million advertisers, with a revenue estimated at £4-5 billion in 2021. (3)

Amazon and Meta have both committed to follow the CMA’s monitoring guidelines to ensure competition works effectively in the digital sector across the United Kingdom. (3)

This means that Facebook customers have the option to ‘opt-out’ of Facebook Marketplace using their advertisement interaction data to then automatically show them relevant products and services in the future. This is one easy way that everyone who is concerned about their privacy and security online can limit unwanted business marketing appearing on their feeds and account pages. The ‘Accounts Centre’ in Facebook has an ‘Ad Preferences’ section that gives users to choose to review their settings for receiving information from advertisers across their social media platforms. (4)

The online technology magazine ‘digital trends’ recommends following this process: Click on the dots on the top right-hand side of every unwanted advertisement that pops up on your feed. Select ‘hide all ads from this advertiser’ from the ‘Why am I seeing this ad?’ within the ‘Options’ menu that appears. (5)

We approached Facebook Marketplace for their comments about how they are tackling governing bodies in Western countries are struggling to catch up with the massive changes in the way we work, live, play and shop in the digital age. We expect to see more direction and intervention from governments and their appointed organisations as political leaders strive to balance the power that the Tech Giants have successfully amassed, with the needs of protecting a diverse community.

Online platforms can be tremendous communication engines that can achieve wonderful connections and do good deeds. At the same time society also needs more safeguards in place to guard members or the public from the unsafe disadvantages and pitfalls involved with combining social media, virtual strangers and monetary exchanges.

See our previous article about the potential pitfalls of online trading platforms like Facebook Marketplace, tips to avoid any problems and how Facebook Marketplace Can Do More To Prevent Scams and Fraud on their popular website.

What is Facebook Marketplace?

Facebook Marketplace is an online trading website where Facebook members can trade new and second-hand items. Facebook Marketplace has “over one billion shoppers per month” according to The Times (1) Facebook Marketplace is owned by Meta Platforms who also own several other social media companies including Facebook, Instagram and WhatsApp.

The e-commerce platform “connects sellers and buyers through meaningful interactions and unique goods” say the company who are competing with other established classified advertising sites like eBay and Craigslist. (2)

Keep Facebook Marketplace purchases simple and affordable just in case

If you are new to using Facebook Marketplace or any other online selling platform it is advisable to make relatively small purchases, compared to your overall monthly budget, in order to manage any risk in inadvertently entering into a significantly dodgy deal. If you are selling things you own, it is preferable to meet unknown buyers outside your home, or in a public place.

It is a good idea to arrange to physically try out any object or piece of equipment you intend to buy, to make sure it is good working order. Check it looks exactly as you imagine and performs as you expect it to, before handing out any hard-earned cash. (3)

Users can usually avoid fraudsters by being tech savvy and using common sense

Several of the aforementioned scams are also common on other sites and apps in 2024. It is not just Facebook Marketplace that is affected by fraudsters and thieves. However, the advice is ‘buyer beware’ and check everything out carefully. If something looks too good to be true it probably is.

Taking a friend to personally visit properties advertised online is advisable especially for women (who are twice as likely to be victims of sexual assault in the UK). (4)  It is prudent to avoid spending any money if you are tired or if you have had a drink or two, as online fraud is increasingly sophisticated.

Monitoring young people’s purchases on Facebook Marketplace with a caring oversight is worthwhile. It is also wise to support older folk, who may be easy prey to technologically savvy deceptive actors online, as many seniors did not embrace the digital era until relatively late in their lives.

When shopping online and on Facebook Marketplace using a credit card can offer some protection on faulty items, or in the case of if a purchase is not received as expected. Using PayPal for online purchases can offer extra protection as well as obscuring your banking details as this ‘third party’ payment gateway can get involved to help resolve the issue if there are any problems.

Josh Kirby at The Times Money Mentor suggests that PayPal might be able to refund a payment if the item is not received satisfactorily, especially if the product purchased is described specifically in the ‘Goods and Services’ function of PayPal’s website. (1)

If the worst should happen Facebook Marketplace do offer the facility of reporting any suspected scams in a section called ‘more options’ (see top right once in your account) but it is better to proceed on the side of caution in the first place. Never be rushed into paying for a product as this is a technique often used by those who want to stress innocent internet users into making an expensive mistake online.

Potential Pitfalls of Facebook Marketplace: Financial Scams

Unfortunately, there are also negative aspects to buying on Facebook Marketplace. The Times lists fake payment confirmations, counterfeit currency and rental scams as the top three methods of committing fraud which leads to the financial detriment of genuine Facebook users. (1)

“The drawback is that there isn’t a built-in payment feature, so it’s down to you to arrange payment or meet up in person.” states UK based Which magazine. (5)

Fake payment confirmations can mean a situation where scammers pretend, they have paid you for items that you have given them, when in fact they have not paid at all. They might use fake branded graphic images to convince you that they have paid in full using a well-known payment transfer service, when this is actually a lie.

There are several ‘varieties on a theme’ of delivery scam. A frequent delivery scam can occur when an unexpecting consumer may be duped into paying freight or courier charges, in order to deliver a tempting but fictional advertised purchase (such as a second-hand car) that will then never arrive.

Always check a car’s registration details with an online vehicle history report check, before you commit to anything. See the advice from the UK governments website (link below) on how to ‘buy and sell a vehicle’ in a hassle-free way. (6)

Genuine Facebook users accounts can be hacked in order to provide a legitimate looking profile, to advertise a distrustful seller’s wares. It is smart to be suspicious of any accounts that look like individuals that are currently selling dozens of expensive items, such as automobiles.

We found that there were sellers are selling 40 or more cars that are obviously priced ‘too cheap’ on one individual Facebook Marketplace account. It is an easy fix for Facebook Marketplace’s algorithms to pick up and then flag these dodgy traders, that are posing as legitimate members of the public, as possibly fraudulent offers.

It would take a capable programmer a minute or two (and one or two lines of code) to make a system that marks an account as ‘likely fraudulent’ and suspend the questionable adverts, pending an investigation by a member of Facebook Marketplace staff, to manually check if it actually is a in fact a genuine seller on not.

Facebook Marketplace is designed for members of the public in a community to privately trade with each other in good faith. Therefore, if posts look like a commercial scale showroom, it should send warning signals into the minds of any law-abiding citizen, that they need to proceed with caution.

It is always sensible to follow a selling website’s guidelines. Staying within the apps messaging service (instead of corresponding with direct personal emails) for example is intelligent, as this request can help to flag up warning signs of a rogue seller who is trying to break the rules, for their own illicit monetary gain.

Any sensitive personal information such as contact information can be used to try and obtain credit (or another type of benefit) by untrustworthy sellers. Extra caution when sharing private details is needed when corresponding on Facebook Marketplace or any other website.

Gift card scams involve a residential customer being asked to purchase gift cards to pay for a variety of online items. The untrustworthy sellers ask the buyer to transfer the numeric reference details of one or more genuine voucher plastic store cards. If someone asks to be paid in gift cards, it is a scam!

‘See it to believe it’ and prevent fraud when shopping online

Scammers may turn up at your house or place of work and try to pay for products you have advertised on Facebook Marketplace using fake or counterfeit money. Always check cash carefully. The Bank of England has issued an excellent leaflet that can help anyone easily check that cash notes are definitely issued by the English Bank, using the security features that are pre-designed into each note. (7)

Verifying any accommodation in person is absolutely crucial. This is because rental scams are common on Facebook Marketplace. It is easily misleading when criminals create sophisticated and inviting posts about accommodation that appears available, complete with attractive accompanying images.

Shockingly, often rental properties posted on Facebook Marketplace are just imitations of previously let flats and houses and the fraudsters are just after your deposit transfer.  Any digital payments made in advance will then not be returned, when you then discover the awful truth about the non-existent home.

The UK government has a service called RentProfile that uses Land Registry data to check that landlords actually own property they are renting out, which helps detect rental fraud. (8)

Potential Pitfalls of Facebook Marketplace: Poor Quality or Dangerous Products

Stolen and fake goods and any products that do not meet the Trading Standards requirements can often be sold on Facebook Marketplace and other online marketplaces too. It is particularly important to consider any potential health or safety problems, such as a fire risk, that can be associated with buying items with poor manufacturing quality. The Trading Standards website is a good place to read and obtain more information about consumer rights and this official site has a postcode business checker feature too.  (9) (10)

We approached Facebook Marketplace for their comments about how they are tackling swindling merchants and cheating traders posing as honest citizens. At the time of the publication of this article we have not received a response. See our next article for more details of how New Security Systems to Prevent Scams and Fraud on Facebook Marketplace are Essential

Over the last decade premium coffee sales have been a growth market in the UK with a nation of tea drinkers adopting the taste for freshly brewed coffee beans prepared by expert baristas. The coffee shop industry is said to be worth £4.9 billion in December 2023 and there are currently more than 8000 coffee chains operating in the United Kingdom and more than 25 thousand individual coffee shops.   (1) (2)

The largest chain in the UK is international brand Costa coffee. which opened a new store as part of Tesco’s supermarket development in Chichester, West Sussex this season, taking over from Harris and Hoole who already have a busy high street premises in the medieval city on the English south coast. It only takes a few weeks to construct and develop a new store ready to open, especially if all the equipment and supplies are prepared ready at a centralized head office who are used to delivering new outlets smoothly.

In many areas across England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland there are now a wide selection of coffee houses with a mix of well-known high street brands. Independent café businesses offering a unique hand crafted coffee drinking experience have increased in popularity. (2)

Coffee shops in most towns were relatively resilient throughout and after the pandemic lockdowns as they were usually able to offer takeaway services instead. However city areas that did not get the usual flow of thirsty commuters were temporarily affected.

Over the last two years many people have been economising due to rising inflation (including rising energy prices) and the cost of living crisis. A coffee that costs more than £4.50 may be out of many folks spending budgets nowadays. However, thousands of cafes may have benefitted from taken custom away from restaurants and bars as friends, colleagues and family members still want to meet up somewhere warm and socially vibrant, that is still relatively inexpensive as an outing.

Premium drinks are still popular and items such as Costa’s new luxury Frappe’s can become a filling snack instead of a more expensive lunch out. So ‘scaling back’ dining out behavior by consumers may continue to support coffee shop sales. A continuing trend could be seen in 2024 that some UK residents are staying a home or packing a picnic instead of visiting a coffee shop as part of a regular routine. This change in consumer habits could well be simultaneously offset by other customers enjoying a cheaper alternative to more traditional dining options by visiting a coffee and cakes style cafe.

Inflation has affected the price of goods and services in the UK and Europe. In the UK minimum wage rises, which are important to reduce poverty for those on low incomes, combined with high rates and taxes (that businesses have to pay regardless of how much they sell) all make running a coffee shop enterprise a tall order, to run successfully.

Café culture and possible threats to the rising demand for coffee

Many medical experts have extolled the virtues of enjoying one properly brewed fresh coffee every day. There are claims that the elements in this delicious brewed drink are beneficial to brain and gut health as well as contributing to a fine cardio vascular system.

Some influencers and health professionals have advised cutting down or cutting out caffeine to maintain an optimally healthy diet and optimising mental health more recently. Coffee shops do offer different decaffeinated beverages as alternative options, so this may not be a game changer. Developing and communicating the processes of de-caffeination to consumers is important to keep them wanting to invest in a specially prepared and priced brew.

The environmental impact of importing beans from far flung places and ensuring that coffee is ‘fair trade’ and kind to the communities where it is produced, is increasingly important to consumers highly conscious about their spending choices. Similarly packaging quantity and material choice is of interest to coffee buyers.

All segments in the coffee industry in the UK declined in sales in 2022 as households and companies look for ways to cut back financial spending.

Homeowning or renting and paying for utilities is unexpectedly expensive especially in large cities this year. Working long hours and balancing family caring responsibilities is hard for many. There is an uncertain economic outlook set against a backdrop of awful wars and deeply concerning events internationally. Consequently there are reports that stress and sleep problems are more widespread than ever, as the post pandemic cost of living crisis affects nearly everyone. A recent Nuffield health survey of 8000 people revealed that only 36% of adults are getting a good nights sleep in the UK. (3)

A silver lining is that this situation can be positive for coffee sellers. Millions of people reach for their favourite cup of ‘pick-me-up’ as adults with responsibilities look to balance and get their most out of their work, studies, leisure time and family life.

Over the next five years consumer experts Mintel predict that coffee sales will start to rise again as inflation and interest rate rises ease, helping the economy to have positive growth again once more. Millions of shoppers who have been looking for easy ways to reduce their monthly outgoings have made simple swaps to lower price coffee brands. Retailers competitively priced ‘own brands’ coffees have been seeing really strong sales compared to previous years.

Some cities have dozens of coffee themed cafes and there may be an oversupply in one area in 2024. It is possible in some towns that there simply may not be space to survive for any ‘mediocre’ businesses that neglect the needs of their discerning coffee fans under the current economic conditions.

However there are opportunities to embrace contemporary café culture as people of all ages look for ways to enhance their lives by taking a refreshment break during their busy days, working on their devices in a peaceful and warm place with good wi-fi or meeting friends in a sociable environment that gets them out of the house.

The last few years have taught us all the value of slowing down and taking time to enjoy a drink or snack is good for our mental health, digestion and avoids the need for unnecessary take-away packaging. Most UK coffee houses will happily fill any reusable insulated bottles with their visitors chosen blended drinks.

In Denmark and other European countries Mc Donald’s coffee is served in large glass soda glasses or china mugs which are then put in a dishwasher which dramatically reduces the amount of single use plastics.

Coffee houses of the future may increase turnover by selling ‘loose’ coffee and tea to customers with their own recyclable containers as well as other products and provisions providing a local venue for ‘packaging free’ purchasing.

Cleanliness is key and anti-bacterial surfaces and hygienic facilities are deliberately sought out by all ages avoiding the spread of germs and viruses. All ages love to visit fashionable places and younger customers often particularly seek the best ‘Instagram’ worthy interiors to record their meetups as online updates that reflect their physical world lives.

Smart café owners may look to develop new menus and beverages that perfectly chime with the sophisticated desires of an increasingly educated, globally ethically conscious and environmentally savvy clientele.