How have Brexit and Covid-19 affected the private building trade and DIY industry in the UK?

Amanda Howse
-
0
How have Brexit and Covid-19 affected the private building trade and DIY industry in the UK?

Initial industry changes in response to Covid-19 restrictions

The closure of all but essential shops and businesses throughout this last year means that there are still delays and problems with procuring some types of materials. Companies across the world have had to make major changes to the ways they operate, in order to continue to work safely and prevent the spread of Covid-19.

During the first lockdown many suppliers completely closed for a few weeks. Managers used the initial closures to update their facilities in order to reopen with confidence that they could operate stores safely with the new government guidance in place. The second lockdown in England at the end of last year has seen many smaller merchants close their physical stores and opt for online ordering and deliveries only.

Controversially larger DIY stores like B&Q, trade depots and garden centres have generally all remained open in England during the current lockdown despite non-essential shops being directed to close.

Supply issues in DIY construction materials supply chain

There have still been some supply issues with importing certain types of wood, aggregates and furniture from abroad caused by difficulties in logistics. Maintaining the normal flow of lorries and people through countries in Europe and beyond has been more difficult than usual and there have been unexpected delays because of Covid-19 checks and restrictions.

Some international borders have been particularly problematic which has interrupted the normal flow of goods. Store closures have interrupted the normal financial purchasing activities carried out by companies. This has affected the flow of funds between businesses in certain supply chains and their suppliers.

Problems with purchasing supplies like plaster, certain sorts of timber and kitchen worktops have impacted customers looking to upgrade their homes themselves. Availability problems have also affected trades people who are trying to use their expertise to get jobs done professionally, all across the country.

Brexit – the effect on DIY construction industry

Aaron Morby wrote in Construction Enquirer last week that last year the value of construction contract wins fell from £40 billion to £28 billion in the UK and he asserts that both the pandemic and Brexit uncertainty are the causes of this fall in demand. (1) On a more positive note, Mr Moby reported on Thursday that the figures just released show the construction industry has now returned to pre-Covid levels of turnover. (2)

However this data could be artificially inflated by government spending on infrastructure projects with borrowed money. This may not be a sustainable strategy in the long term.“Realistically the fallout for businesses from Brexit could yet take months to fully understand which means an element of volatility in the short to medium term.” said the Construction Enquirer expert. (2)

This summer Boris Johnson’s government has relaxed a lot of planning regulations in order to encourage the building of new houses and accommodation for the UK’s aging population. It is now possible to build up to 2 storeys on the top of most residential homes. This is a strategy that mirrors increasing the size of houses on the continent, in places like Malta, to provide more bedrooms and facilities for multi-generational living.

Matthew Lane of Property Investor Today suggests concentrating on helping UK suppliers and improving trade skills in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland is key to keeping the construction industry afloat during these changing times. There has been a sharp decrease in skilled contractors from European countries wanting to work in the UK because of Brexit regulations and this will cause a decline in the quantity of projects completed in 2021. (3)

In Hampshire agencies email their professional contacts daily with requests for local builders. Members of the public frequently post ‘builder wanted’ adverts as presently there is a shortage of builders compared to the demand. Examples of the work offered are building garages, outdoor lodges and extensions. New room layouts are popular for private customers looking to expand and reorganise their interior spaces during the current lockdown. Creating new study areas and improving sound privacy where needed have also been important, as adults and children both try and work from home.

Some DIY departments saw big losses in 2020

In general UK consumer spending was down 7.1% last year according to DIY Week which quoted Barclaycard’s findings. 2020 was a year of changes and surprises in many ways and the DIY sector saw an overall increase of 9.8% as the public looked to save money and finally make time to tackle their DIY To Do lists. (4)

“Big-ticket items, such as flooring and kitchens, were particularly adversely affected by the turmoil and have consequently seen double-digit declines.” stated Businesswire in September 2020. (5)

There was also some positive news in the DIY sector in 2020

Howdens posted a press release to say trading had been stronger than expected in the last quarter of 2020. The company announced that the profits were due to be higher than initially expected with profits of over £150 million expected in its latest report due next month. (8)

Industry analysts predict that Kingfisher which owns B&Q will report a 11% rise in sales at the end of January 2021. Similarly financial analysts also forecast that Screxfix will also add 5% onto their predicted sales increase, compared to last year’s total income figures. The experts predict a rocky year ahead for the DIY supercentres and that growth will return again in 2022/3 as the market bounces back from a lot of instability. (9)

Garden sheds, paint sales and anything to do with gardening like garden furniture for example had a bumper year in 2020. Materials that are needed for easy redecorating activities were lapped up by families looking to make the most of being at home together for many weeks in a row. The good weather in the first lockdown last spring encouraged the fashionable trend for gardening, sprucing up and remodelling the outside yard space in order to create useful and beautiful ‘outdoor rooms’.

The UK property market in most areas is still buoyant fuelled by a ‘stamp duty holiday’ initiative available until later in April 2021. Estate agencies in rural locations have been kept busy by the wish to relocate to the countryside and the coast by many city dwellers who are released by their changing working circumstances.  This has a trickle down effect for the DIY and private building industry as residents look to get their pads ready to go on the market. Buyers who have relocated are then hiring contractors as they strive to create their perfect new homes.

The furlough scheme, the self employed support scheme and other government grants have combined with mortgage holidays to ensure that we have not yet seen a dramatic change in the property market in England. As the reality of all the jobs lost and the full financial consequences of Brexit are felt in the city and beyond the private construction and DIY sectors could face the toughest times we have seen for decades.

It is however possible that if the government are able to support British manufacturers and enough of our economy can weather the tempestuous times ahead, that any downward slump will be short lived and a market recovery will be achieved relatively swiftly. Vaccinating the adult population will undoubtedly help consumer confidence and 4 million older and vulnerable people have now had their jabs already according, to the BBC News today.

Many investors are choosing bricks and mortar as a safe bet in an era of extremely uncertain financial markets and very low interest rates. This fact will help keep demand for anything to do with maintaining buildings at a healthy level. Everyone in the UK can make a difference to their local economies by finding out if it is possible to take advantage of one of the government’s green energy programmes such as replacing outdated and inefficient domestic windows.

Shopping locally and buying British, Scottish, Welsh or Irish products where possible will make a difference to the UK’s independent retailers who are struggling to adapt and survive. Small and medium sized building supplies companies need their local public’s custom to keep their businesses running, in an extraordinary time of change to regulations and commercial operations, the scale of which has not been seen since World War II.

(1) ‘Top 100 main contractors weather 30% drop in contract wins’ Aaron Morby, Construction Enquirer, 7 January 2021 ‘Top 100 main contractors weather 30% drop in contract wins’ Aaron Morby, Construction Enquirer

(2) ‘Construction recovers to pre-pandemic level’ Aaron Morby, Construction Enquirer, 15 January 2021 ‘Construction recovers to pre-pandemic level’ Aaron Morby, Construction Enquirer

(3) ‘Insight: how will Brexit affect the UK property market?’ Matthew Lane, 4 December 2020 ‘Insight: how will Brexit affect the UK property market?’ Matthew Lane

(4) ‘Consumer spending declined 7.1%…yet spending at home improvement & DIY stores surged’ DIY Week, 4 January 2021 ‘Consumer spending declined 7.1%…yet spending at home improvement & DIY stores surged’ DIY Week

(5) ‘UK Home Improvement Market Report 2020: Analysis of the impact of Covid-19 and Future Implications’ Businesswire, 17 September 2020 ‘UK Home Improvement Market Report 2020: Analysis of the impact of Covid-19 and Future Implications’ Businesswire

Star Count 2021 is coming soon to England

Amanda Howse
-
0
Star Count 2021 is coming soon to England

The Campaign to Protect Rural England CPRE are a countryside charity that organises an annual event to count and chart the stars in the sky around the UK. The aim is to reconnect people with ‘the wonder of a truly dark sky’ and map light pollution in this part of the world. Their research shows that light pollution is “leaving fewer stars than ever visible”.

This cosmic census will be completed by ‘citizen scientists’ across the country from the 6-14th February 2021. It is the perfect family activity that can be enjoyed by everyone in a household during lockdown, without even leaving home. Most adults have experienced the breathtaking beauty of a starlit sky on a clear night at some point in their lives and also the uplifting sense of awe it can inspire.

Spotting how many stars are seen within Orian is easy due to the guidance given by the organisation that campaigns to improve environmental conditions in rural areas. It is possible to take part even if you don’t have a garden or outdoor space. A clear window or balcony to the heavens is all that is needed. To sign up for all the details and get involved follow the link below.

CPRE’s work is involved in a wide range of areas including nature and landscapes, better places to live, farming, sustainable transport and climate change and energy.

Last year 2400 people took part and the information that they recorded helped to conclude that “61% of people live in areas with severe light pollution.” This was up by 4% from the previous years findings. On the upside more than 3% of stargazers reported seeing more than 30 stars within Orian in the 2020 count. (2)

The Campaign to Protect Rural England is advising local councils across the country in how to take steps to adopt better policies in their local plans, in order to reduce light pollution. If the initiative works it will help more families experience the joy of star filled skies in the future.

(1) ‘Be the first to hear about Star Count 2021’ CPRE the countryside charity, 13 January 2021 ‘Be the first to hear about Star Count 2021’ CPRE the countryside charity,

(2) ‘The results of our 2020 Star Count are in’ Campaign to Protect Rural England, Emma Marrington, 28th May 2020 ‘‘The results of our 2020 Star Count are in’ Emma Marrington, CPRE countryside charity

Should 3rd lockdown be even stricter?

Amanda Howse
-
0
Should 3rd lockdown be even stricter?

The 3rd national lockdown

On Monday 4th January Boris Johnson announced the 3rd national lockdown in order to slow the spread of Covid-19 in England. (1)

Yesterday London’s mayor Sadiq Khan announced that the virus is ‘out of control’ and London’s hospitals could become overwhelmed with patients, as the UK’s covid death toll exceeded that of the peak last April. The delayed nature of the coronavirus means we are now just starting to see cases from people who have become sick after they have met with family and friends in the last 2 weeks of December and during the temporary lifting of the Christmas restrictions.

The Prime Minister has explained how the new strain of the virus is 50-70% more transmissible. The restrictions need to be as strict as possible in order that the contagion cannot pass easily from person to person. This method of social distancing is the government’s strategy for reducing the hospital admissions to a level which the NHS can easily manage.

The official advice is to ‘stay at home’ unless you are a key worker or it is impossible to work from home, to shop for essentials, to exercise, to provide care or for a medical appointment.

During the pandemic it makes sense that medical key workers and carers and anyone involved in social care services go to work to look after sick and vulnerable people who need caring for. There are of course many men, women and children who have other illnesses and medical conditions that need assistance and caring for every day, as well as those unlucky enough to be affected by covid-19. Part of the logic for the lockdown is that we need to make sure people who do not have the new virus but need to access healthcare and hospital treatment can still receive it.

How we could tighten lockdown: the construction industry

These new rules mean that people who cannot work from home are still going to work. It is important that the country’s infrastructure keeps working despite all the challenges faced by this awful disease. The UK economy has already been hit hard by the financial consequences of the unexpected restrictions. Some construction projects are vital to the community in both cities and rural counties. The new Nightingale hospital facilities that are available have been created by many professionals in the building industry going the extra mile. However is it really essential that builders are allowed to keep working on upgrading and renovating expensive houses all over the country?

It is logical that emergency plumbers should be able to ensure that young families and older people can have their heating fixed in the freezing temperatures we are experiencing this January.

This Autumn the ministry of housing stated that there were 648114 empty homes in England. We are going to have thousands of empty commercial properties that could be given a change of use to become residential properties in the future. It may be wise to take stock of the housing situation after all these changes in our society that affect people’s ability to get mortgages and so forth. This will prevent geren field sites becoming new housing developments unnecessarily.

Perhaps it would be a good idea to halt any non essential projects until it is clear that the number of cases has been reduced at least to the levels we had in the summer that the NHS could cope with more comfortably. (2)

How we could tighten lockdown: retail and leisure industry

It is understandable that supermarkets and chemists have to remain open but they still provide an opportunity for the virus to spread between people if they are coming into too close contact. Perhaps garden centres and builder’s merchants might be able to operate as ‘click and collect’ stores only in order to avoid people passing germs around inadvertently.

Thousands of single person households and families would have more food, toiletries and supplies for the home delivered, if they could get delivery slots. Safe contact delivery services are better for social distancing than people gathering in supermarkets. This is particuarly important if the shops are on the smaller size or are situated in busy areas. Having set times for shopping sessions might help distribute visitors more evenly across the businesses opening hours which would also reduce contact. Booking a ticket online with a specific time slot or allocating regular timed appointments could also be another option.

Home deliveries also avoid the need for people to take public transport to get their weekly groceries. Minimising journeys taken by locals on trains and busses means that key workers can travel in greater safety. In Spain a designated person has been assigned to purchase their household’s provisions which further cuts down on the opportunities of passing on the virus.

How we could tighten lockdown: bubbles, social interactions and churches

The current guidance on teaming up with another household if you are providing childcare or live on your own is “A support bubble may include a maximum of two households and should be “fixed”; people are advised against switching between different bubbles.” There has been some confusion especially over Christmas about who you can meet indoors. Numerous reports of house parties particularly in London over the festive season demonstrate that many young people and adults have not been sticking to the rules on social distancing.

We are yet to see the effects of the rebellious New Year’s gatherings. Chris Whitty confirmed the seriousness of the situation on the BBC News programme this morning and confirmed that we are yet to see the peak of hospital admissions and deaths and that 1 in 30 people have tested positive for Covid-19 in London this week.

On Saturday 5 protesters were arrested after a group of around 30 men and women grouped together at Clapham Common shouting anti-lockdown chants. Clearly with the pressure on health services at crisis point the unmasked demonstrators were putting themselves, the police officers and others lives at risk. Any mass gathering at this time is unacceptable and although individual freedoms are massively important in any democracy, this way of opposing the government’s strategy is highly irresponsible.

Residents who want to make their difference of opinion heard should use technology. There are many ways of corresponding with those in charge in this country and individuals must use the correct channels to communicate their views to their local councillors and politicians. (3) Everyone ‘Behaving as if you have the virus’ over the next few months is key to allowing senior citizens and the vulnerable to be vaccinated and together we can then avoid preventable illness and deaths. (3)

In France, Spain, Italy and other European countries tougher time limits have been enforced for exercising outdoors. Introducing a night time curfew has also worked in other countries whereby it would be illegal to be out after a set time to reduce the number of people out and about and possibly visiting each other’s houses needlessly.

The BBC News reported today that closing places of worship could be an option in further reducing the increase in cases across the country due to their ‘communal nature’. Scotland has already closed churches of all religions until the current lockdown is lifted. It is usually possible to receive church services online but it is not the same social experience and not everyone has access to the internet. It is understood by religious leaders and the government that being able to visit a place of worship especially in these difficult times should be reinstated as soon as possible for the benefit of all communities. (6)

How we could tighten lockdown: education

The government has said that any family who does not have the laptops, computer equipment and internet in order to be able to complete home study work can attend school as usual. It will remain to be seen this week how many extra pupils go back to school following this advice. The Guardian wrote yesterday that “more than 1 in 6 primary schools were reporting more than 30% of children attending” class. Children of key workers and vulnerable and special needs children are also exempt from the school closure rules during lockdown. (4)

“The key worker list is so exhaustive that the majority of households have one parent falling within the list,” said a parent named Rachel on Friday to Manchester Evening News which reported that some schools had 70% of its pupils requesting to attend classes as usual.  “Doesn’t matter if the other parent is at home and doesn’t work, is working from home etc – the children are still going into school. Both parents should be key workers I think.” (5)

Nursery schools are still open as usual and as this is another opportunity for households to mix this closing nurseries could be an option for ensuring a successful lockdown. We know that young children thankfully do not get really sick but when they unintentionally pass the covid-19 infection between them they can infect parents and grandparents with devastating consequences. A temporary closure might be inconvenient for everyone including key workers but would help fight the spread of the virus at this crucial time.

A fit for purpose lockdown and the future

The government has been clear that nobody wants to officially restrict the lives of residents in England with rules that curb their precious freedoms. However it is not fair that some members of the public are taking a laissez faire attitude to another national lockdown and the compulsory wearing of face masks.

Millions of single parents and adults of all ages are living alone and following the rules despite the social isolation and loneliness this lockdown can cause. ‘Frontline’ workers and those who are shielding or caring for people with disabilities are sacrificing selflessly in order to support the drive to reduce the ‘R’ reinfection number and reduce this contagion to a less harmful status in the near future.

The vaccine programme is racing to vaccinate millions of adults across the country over the coming months. This national immunisation drive is on a scale we have not seen since World War II. It is great news that the scientists have developed vaccines so swiftly and that they should even work on the latest variants of the coronavirus.

Whilst this countrywide life saving project takes place it may be wise for Westminster to order further limits to our activities and interactions on a temporary basis. We must ensure the lockdown is strict enough in order to be able to conquer this life endangering contagion. Only then will we be able to begin to return to a more normal way of life once again, most likely on a gradual basis during the summer months and into the autumn.

 

(1.) ‘What England’s new national lockdown rules mean for you -and when they could end’ Jordan Kelly-Linden, Chris Graham, Lucy Fisher, Harry Yorke, Charles Hymas, The Telegraph, 9 January 2021 ‘What England’s new national lockdown rules mean for you -and when they could end’ Jordan Kelly-Linden & friends, The Telegraph

(2.) ‘Empty housing’ (England) UK Parliment House of Commons Library, 21 October 2021 Empty housing’ (England) UK Parliament House of Commons Library,

(3.) Anti-lockdown protesters gather in Clapham Common, Daniel O’Mahony, 9 January 2021 Anti-lockdown protesters gather in Clapham Common, Daniel O’Mahony, Evening Standard

(4.) ‘Primary schools in England still ‘rammed’ with pupils, say heads’, Richard Adams, 8 Jan 2021 ‘Primary schools in England still ‘rammed’ with pupils, say heads’, Richard Adams, 8 Jan 2021

(5.) ‘It’s a shambles’: Row over key worker school places as parents accused of taking spaces to avoid home learning’ Emma Gill, Manchester Evening News, 8 January 2021

‘It’s a shambles’: Row over key worker school places as parents accused of taking spaces to avoid home learning’ Emma Gill, Manchester Evening News

(6.) Covid rules: What could be done to tighten lockdown in England? BBC News, 11 January 2021 Covid rules: What could be done to tighten lockdown in England?

12th Night Look at Alternative Christmas Trees That Brightened Up Sussex

Amanda Howse
-
0
12th Night Look at Alternative Christmas Trees That Brightened Up Sussex

Today marks the 12th night since Christmas in the Christian calendar and is traditionally the time to take the decorations down if you haven’t already.

Putting up the Christmas tree has brought great joy to millions of people this winter. A symbol of the light shining through the darkness. For many there is a magical connection to childhood memories of Christmas with our families and turning on the lights gave us a special extra boost this year.

By the time we get to New Year most of us have seen our fair share of real and simulated fir trees in all their glittering varieties, both large and small. Here are a few of the best Christmas trees from travels around Sussex and the Solent coastline in the south of England.

Tracey Graham recycled Xmas tree
Tracey Graham recycled Xmas tree

We like this alternative seasonal installation by Tracey Graham which comprises of a tall green cone of 600 recycled bottles. They look great lit up by fairy lights too. This is the second year I have seen this display in Chichester so the recycled artwork has given joy to many people and is a reminder to conserve, reuse and rethink in order to help conserve the environment for future generations to enjoy.

Lobster pot Xmas tree, Emsworth
Lobster pot Xmas tree, Emsworth

In Chichester harbour is a town called Emsworth in Hampshire. This fabulous nautical feature sits at the edge of the quay complete with gold tinsel and gold, red and green baubles. It is cleverly made out of old lobster pots and is a hit with the residents of this idyllic fishing village. Also lifting the spirits in this close knit community this year, is a small Christmas tree sitting in a dinghy in the middle of the Mill Pond.

Langbrook Farm's North Pole display, Langstone harbour
Langbrook Farm’s North Pole display, Langstone harbour

We wanted to include this festive scene into our alternative to the usual winter festival display report. A nearly empty pub at lunchtime further along the coast towards Portsmouth Harbour opted for traditional Christmas trees plus the addition of a North Pole grotto. The large carvery restaurant Langbrook Farm had pulled out all the stops to furnish the capacious dining rooms with an impressive array of Christmas embellishments. It was disappointing that everything has had to close for the holidays this year but at least they will have everything they need to pop up their Christmas show again in December 2021.

Rotary Club Market Cross Xmas tree Chichester
Rotary Club Market Cross Xmas tree Chichester

One enormous decorated fir tree sponsored by the local Rotary Club is also a regular fixture at the medieval Market Cross in Chichester, West Sussex. It looks wonderful set against the stone architecture with the cathedral behind it.

Arundel town centre Xmas tree
Arundel town centre Xmas tree

We are fortunate in our area to have some stunning waterside walks and many historic streets. A massive Christmas tree in the centre of Arundel is just perfect simply adorned with white strings of lights and set against the Georgian and Tudor four storey buildings. Taking the inside out has been a theme around the towns and villages of Sussex.

Another example is the tree at Bosham Walk Arts and Crafts Centre which looks splendid and welcoming whilst keeping things minimal with just sparkly white lights. This classic fir is located in front of the cafe’s bunting that hangs from the beams of this 100 year old establishment, that used to be a boat building business that could be easily found right by the shore.

Westminster coloured baubles on tree (detail)
Westminster coloured baubles on tree (detail)

Being creative, thinking outside the box and enjoying what we can to lift our spirits safely has become a lifestyle in 2020. The reductions in transport and industry has significantly lowered emissions this year and reusing and recycling is definitely a trend that is here to stay in all parts of our lives and in our festivals. We all need to work together to minimise the impact on our environment from burning fossil fuels unnecessarily when celebrating our holidays.

We are rooting for commercial life to get back to a new normal as soon as it is practical to do so safely. After the 3rd lockdown and all the vaccinations are completed it will be a treat to more freely meet again. It will be super to marvel at the festive city decorations which we will all hopefully be able to do again by the end of next year. It may all look a little different but we can all look forward to the wonderously joyful experience of ‘seeing the lights’ and enjoying the delightful windows in London and our other major cities in the UK and beyond in December 2021.

 

Tracey Graham Rubbish Artist, 6th January 2021 Tracey Graham Rubbish Artist Facebook page

Rotary Club Chichester, 6th January 2021, Rotary Club Chichester

Langbrook Farm, 6th January 2021, Langbrook Farm, Farmhouse Inns

Bosham Walk Art and Craft Centre, 6th January 2021 Bosham Walk Art and Craft Centre

 

Will Vaccine Rollout Mean 3rd Lockdown is the Last?

Amanda Howse
-
0
Will Vaccine Rollout Mean 3rd Lockdown is the Last?

Last night Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced in a televised press conference that a new national lockdown will commence today.

A tough decision was made by Mr Johnson after a chaotic ‘back to school’ plan for millions of families in England this week. Thousands of children started the new year by going to primary school for just one day before being told they will be home schooling for the rest of this half term at least. This decision will cause inconvenience for a big section of society that rely on childcare and school services but it will ultimately save more lives from being lost unnecessarily.

This was another U turn in the government’s strategy to manage the rising cases of coronavirus as just last week the government insisted that schools should stay open. As a new strain of Covid-19 is spreading across the country in numbers higher than the peak of the pandemic in April, it became clear that the household mixing that is inevitable in schools has accelerated the number of people contracting the contagion. Although children are very rarely affected by Covid-19 there is a serious risk to the health and lives of teachers, parents and grandparents that is just too great at this time, so all schools in England were directed to switch to home learning.

The Chief Medical Officer for England, Professor Chris Whitty and the NHS Medical Director raised the NHS alert level to 5 which indicates the National Health Service could be overwhelmed in several areas during the next 21 days. (1)

Over the weekend the top team at number 10 have consulted with the leading scientists and looked at the hospital admissions this week and consequently the Prime Minister has made the only sensible decision under the circumstances. Private individuals and businesses in England are all trying their best to adapt to all the changes in government restrictions. After all the unexpected opening and closing of shops and businesses throughout the year, five days of Christmas mixing was cancelled and progressively strict Tier changes came into force. “GCSE and A-level exams are unlikely to go ahead as planned” said Boris Johnson (2) Now we are all facing our 3rd a full lockdown which could last into March and it is a lot to deal with for many people in lots of different ways depending on each household’s personal circumstances.

In statesmanly language Mr Johnson is now encouraging the country to stay at home unless you have a good reason like shopping for essentials, going for your allotted daily exercise outside, providing care or going for a medical appointment. It is permitted for two people to walk together. Only take-away food and drink will be available during January and into February. He said “the weeks ahead would be “the hardest yet” but he believed the country was entering “the last phase of the struggle.” (3)

The more transmissible nature of the new strain of Covid-19 means the goal posts keep changing. This makes it extra difficult for the epidemiologists and politicians to predict whether social distancing regulations will have the desired reduction in pressure that hospitals and community care centres are facing with limited resources. The Independent reported today that a professor of infectious diseases said that “England’s third lockdown might not be enough to stifle the new coronavirus variant.” (4)

The good news is that this action plan might actually work this time. If the roll-out of the Pfizer BioNTech and Oxford University / Astra Zeneca vaccines goes ahead at full speed the one million people that have been vaccinated so far will increase to at least 13 million over the next few weeks with the target set at mid-February.

“More than half a million doses are available today, with tens of millions more to be delivered in the coming weeks and months once batches have been quality checked by the MHRA. More than 730 vaccination sites have already been established across the UK and hundreds more are opening this week to take the total to over 1,000, helping those who are most at risk..” stated the government website yesterday when the first people ever received the Oxford University / Astra Zeneca vaccine to protect them against Covid-19. (5)

This will mean that the most vulnerable people in our society and those who are working on the front line will be protected from this spring.

Surely it is right to focus on getting this disease under control and prevent it from causing severe illness and then to set about getting the best education and rebuilding the economy. Summer schools and extra programs can be developed to help those who need it to catch up and progress with their education and career training.

During these vital months we can all do what we can to keep well and follow the guidance and attend any appointments to get jabs we might be lucky enough to receive. Then this just might be the last lockdown that is needed in the UK. Mass immunisation makes it unlikely for this awful virus to be able to continue to cause the major increases in demand for emergency and healthcare services, we are seeing during this winter flu season.

We are grateful to the scientists, biologists, doctors, nurses and volunteers for developing and testing these vaccines so quickly so we can manage this disease and get everyone back to enjoy a more normal life again this summer.

 

(1) ‘Covid-19 alert level: update from the UK Chief Medical Officers, Gov UK, 4 January 2021 ‘Covid-19 alert level: update from the UK Chief Medical Officers’ Gov UK

(2) ‘Tuesday briefing: England enters third national lockdown’ Morning Briefing, The Guardian 5 January 2021 (2) ‘Tuesday briefing: England enters third national lockdown’ The Guardian

(3) ‘What England’s new national lockdown rules mean for you.’ Jordan Kelly-Linden, Chris Graham, Lucy Fisher, The Telegraph, 5 January 2021 (3) ‘What England’s new national lockdown rules mean for you.’ Jordan Kelly-Linden, Chris Graham, Lucy Fisher, The Telegraph,

(4) ‘Covid news – live: Lockdown may not be enough to stifle new variant’ Samuel Osborne, The Independent, 5 January 2021 (4) ‘Covid news – live: Lockdown may not be enough to stifle new variant’ Samuel Osborne, The Independent,

(5) ‘First people to receive Oxford University/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine today’ Department of Health and Social Care, 4 January 2021 ‘First people to receive Oxford University/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine today’ Gov UK

Brexit: Will UK Citizens Be Safer?

Amanda Howse
-
0
Brexit: Will UK Citizens Be Safer?

In 2021 the European Union will introduce the European Travel Information and Authorisation System or ETIAS for UK citizens wishing to travel to the EU, which will be complete and in place by the end of 2022.

There will also be a new a reciprocal arrangement for EU citizens wanting to enter the UK. European Union residents with criminal convictions and “people sentenced to more than a year in prison will be turned away, in line with other foreign nationals” announced Home Secretary Priti Patel in October 2020. She continued to outline how “For too long, EU rules have forced us to allow dangerous foreign criminals, who abuse our values and threaten our way of life, onto our streets. The UK will be safer thanks to firmer and fairer border controls where foreign criminals regardless of nationality will be subject to the same criminality rules.” (1)

Ms. Patel has also spoken about how she is going to give the police increased powers but the details of how she intends this to happen in practice is still unclear.

Today more than 40 countries including Ireland and France, Belgium and Germany have travel bans in place for any UK residents looking to travel abroad. This is because of the new strain of coronavirus which has developed in England over the last few weeks. Leaders worldwide are looking to contain more transmissible versions of Covid-19 found in people living in English counties in the southern region and also in people who have travelled from South Africa. (2)

The new arrangements that will make it tougher for men, women and children to visit the UK. This new approach that focuses on securing the countries borders has been criticised by those opposing Boris Johnson’s government as it takes a much stricter approach to immigration in 2021 than the previous more liberal leadership teams in Westminster have administered.

However many people that voted for Brexit will be pleased with the new measures. Communities like Thanet near Dover have been disproportionately affected by immigrants unexpectedly arriving by boat from the EU via France. Of the residents that voted in the Brexit referendum 63.8% supported leaving the EU. Locals in this area supported restricting the flow of people wanting to settle in Great Britain and Northern Ireland and accessing the benefits of the UK’s public services like the National Health Service. (3)

In June 2019 the Office for National Statistics recorded that there were 2.37 million EU nationals working in the UK. (4) These professionals help create a society in the UK that has been admired across the world. Thousands of Europeans who work in our financial and manufacturing industries and in and our health, security and support services are either leaving the country or reconsidering whether they want to continue to continue to work for example as nurses under the new rules and regulations now the UK has left the EU.

Currently EU nationals living in Great Britain and Northern Ireland who have criminal convictions will be unlikely to apply for the right to remain in the UK for fear of being rejected and potentially deported.

It is a widely held belief that UK criminals have been relocating to sunnier climates like Spain for decades and the ETIAS system is likely to prevent them leaving the UK. There are many factors to consider and it is not necessarily the case that the general public will be any safer after Brexit.

Communication between the UK and the EU about international criminals and policing in general looks like it will be diminished following Brexit. The police agencies will be working in a more separate way and not together in the same teamwork manor as they have done previously with Europol and the Schengen Information System II databases.

Sir Ian Blair who was Metropolitan Police Commissioner from 2005 and 2008 and Lord Ricketts a former national security adviser are quoted in the Independent this afternoon on the subject of Brexit and both have agreed publicly that “this is going to make us less safe.” (5)

Important security database information will not be so accessible to UK police departments after Brexit because of increased intellectual privacy arrangements the UK wished to include in the Brexit agreement. This means in practice we will not be able to have “direct real time” access to information about potentially dangerous criminals attempting to visit the UK.

An example of how the continental neighbours worked with Great Britain previously could be the European Arrest Warrant agreement which meant that “From April 2010 to March 2020, the UK sent back 10,689 people wanted in other EU member states, and it got back 1,564 people wanted for a variety of offences including drug trafficking, rape and murder” according to the BBC. (6) Leaving the European Union and therefore ending the European Arrest Warrant agreement may lead to European nationals living in England, Wales, Scotland or Northern Ireland committing crimes in the UK and fleeing to their country of origin where they would not be extradited to face criminal charges in a court in Great Britain or Northern Ireland.

EU nationals have been invited to apply for a ‘right to remain’ in the UK under the EU settlement scheme. “However, if an individual who is protected by the Withdrawal Agreement commits crimes from 1 January 2021, in the UK or overseas, their status could be revoked.” says the Home Office website. (7)

It remains to be seen in practice whether the new border security arrangements keep UK or EU citizens safer. The government says they are fairer but there are criticisms that migrants that lack digital access and good language skills may find navigating the changes to the immigration process confusing.

It is possible that law abiding residents from abroad living in the UK could inadvertently become criminalised by not applying for papers and passports correctly in the specified time frames.

There is a new and real threat for young people and adults of all ages in the UK. Being convicted of breaking the law can easily result in the withdrawal of the rights of the citizen to have freedom to travel to so many countries in the same continent. This will likely be a real deterrent to any person who may like to travel to the EU or America in the future.

The BBC reported on Christmas Day that The Home Office said “the post-Brexit agreement included streamlined extradition arrangements, fast and effective exchange of national DNA, fingerprint and vehicle registration data and continued transfers of Passenger Name Record data.” However the same article mentioned the inability to access EU security databases post Brexit and how that stolen items such as guns cannot now easily be searched for by UK police using technology to solve and prevent crimes. (1)

We hope that the continued cooperation between police forces internationally will be possible through a process of negotiation and partnership over the coming years. It is vital that terrorist groups that operate internationally are thwarted with the intelligence from every liberal democratic country working together.

We hope that the agreement with the EU will mean the UK is stronger and safer but only time will show whether we are moving towards or away from these admirable goals for our country. We are all living in a pluralist 21st century global environment. Building stronger and safer communities across the UK is in reality a complex issue, in which Brexit is an ambitious solution.

 

(1) ‘Brexit deal ‘will make UK safer’, Priti Patel says, BBC News, 25 December 2020 (5) ‘Brexit deal ‘will make UK safer’, Priti Patel says, BBC News

(2) ‘COVID-19: Which countries have restricted travel to and from the UK over new variant?’ 25 December 2020 (2) ‘COVID-19: Which countries have restricted travel’ Sky News

(3) BBC News EU Referendum results (archived pages) BBC News EU Referendum results (archived pages)

(4) Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: August 2019 Migration Statistics Quarterly Report: August 2019

(5) ‘UK will be ‘less safe’ after Brexit, says former Metropolitan Police chief’ Adam Forrest, Independent, 4 January 2021 ‘UK will be ‘less safe’ after Brexit, says former Metropolitan Police chief’ Adam Forrest, Independent

(6) ‘Brexit: Will the UK and the EU co-operate on security?’ Chris Morris, BBC News, 20 October 2020 ‘Brexit: Will the UK and the EU co-operate on security?’ Chris Morris, BBC News

(7) ‘Home office announces tougher criminality rules for EU citizens’, 21 October 2020 ‘Home office announces tougher criminality rules for EU citizens’ Gov.UK

(8) ‘Schengen Area – The World’s Largest Visa Free Zone’ 28 December 2020 ‘Schengen Area – The World’s Largest Visa Free Zone’

Brexit: Can UK Citizens With A Criminal Conviction Travel To The EU?

Amanda Howse
-
0
Brexit: Can UK Citizens With A Criminal Conviction Travel To The EU?

Tomorrow night the United Kingdom officially leaves the European Union. From midnight on December 31st 2020 all those living in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will be affected by the legal, economic and practical changes that will take place. In the future UK citizens looking to travel to Europe will need to complete an application in order to stay for up to 90 days in any 180 day period in any of the 26 Schengen member states. You can see a list of the Schengen countries by following the link below. (1)

The new European Travel Information and Authorisation System ETIAS visa waiver system is set to be fully implemented by the end of 2022. This means a person with a serious criminal conviction who lives in the UK may not be allowed to travel to any of the 26 countries in the Schengen area of the EU. This is because they may be denied a travel visa. This potential ban on being able to visit a country (or individual countries in a region such as the European Union) is much like the current process that we have currently with the American immigration services, whose system for processing applications to those wanting to visit the US is called ESTA.

Erica Crompton at London’s Metro newspaper reported that there are “11 million people in the UK with a criminal record. A third of men and nine per cent of women will have been convicted of an offence by the age of 53.” Unlock is a charity who provide information and advice to people who have received criminal convictions in the UK. Unlock agree with this startling figure and also added that 735,000 people currently have unspent convictions in the UK. (2)

When the rules change automatic entry for UK passport holders into any country in the EU will cease. Debbie Sadler is the Advice Manager at Unlock and she explains that UK citizens will need to complete an application online for the European Travel Information and Authorisation System (ETIAS) Applicants wanting to travel to Europe will need a debit or credit card and a biometric passport. The ETIAS visa waiver form to Europe will cost around £6.30 (7 Euro) and it will begin with providing a range of personal details. The following 3 questions will also need to be answered:

“Have you been convicted of any criminal offence listed in the Annex (see below) over the previous 10 years and in the case of terrorist offences, over the previous 20 years, and if so when and in which country?”

“Have you stayed in a specific war or conflict zone over the previous 10 years and if so, the reason for your stay?”

“Have you been subject to any decision requiring you to leave the territory of a Member State or have you been subject to any return decision issue over the previous 10 years?”

The Unlock.org.uk link below will take you to the page with the annexed list of violent and serious offences that will likely bar entry. This eclectic list of serious convictions includes industrial espionage, fraud, cybercrime, forgery and racism. (5)

If a person answers yes to any of the above questions they will be referred to a manual application process at the ETIAS National Unit where an immigration manager may ask for additional information and will then either approve or refuse the travel authority for visiting the EU.

The ETIAS website states that “many countries will still grant entry to travellers with a minor criminal history.” ETIAS also warns that Germany has much stricter rules than most of the other Schengen member states, as the county reserves the right to immediately deport anyone with: A public order conviction with a sentence of more than 3 years. Drug offences with a sentence of more than 2 years. Any offence related to human trafficking.” ETIAS advises that the system is geared towards identifying terrorist threats. (6)

Increased border security will be a result of Brexit for both UK and all EU countries. Passports will be checked and there will be an increase in bureaucracy for everyone. This will include the new ETIAS travel visa forms. When an ETIAS form is issued it is valid for 3 consecutive years. If an ETIAS application is denied an applicant is eligible to apply to appeal the decision. (7)

Last year the Office for National Statistics recorded that there were over 66 million people living in the UK. These means 1 person in 6 and their families will be potentially barred from travelling together on holiday or for work to the United States or the European Union because of a previous criminal conviction.

It is inevitable that the European Union will choose to restrict its borders in response to the UK’s wish to leave the Union and restrict access to European teenagers and adults who have previous convictions on their record. A key Leave campaign goal for leaving the EU has been the wish to ‘regain sovereignty’. This aim to be a ‘self governing state’ has translated into increasing border security and much tougher immigration rules with new laws in passed in Westminster this winter. One of the disadvantages of Brexit for those living in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland will be a decrease in the freedom to travel and work abroad, due to the increased visa restrictions particularly for those who have convictions for breaking the law in the UK.

(1) ‘Schengen Area – The World’s Largest Visa Free Zone’ 28 December 2020 Schengen Area – The World’s Largest Visa Free Zone’ Schengen Visa Info

(2) ’10 things you should know if you have a criminal record’ Erica Crompton, Metro, 28 October 2017 ’10 things you should know if you have a criminal record’ Erica Crompton, Metro

(3) ‘Travel to the EU post-Brexit’, 28 December 2020, ‘Travel to the EU post-Brexit’, Unlock.org

(4) ‘Going to Europe with a Criminal Record: Requirements and How to Apply’ ETIAS website, 28 December 2020 ‘Going to Europe with a Criminal Record: Requirements and How to Apply’ ETIAS

(5) ‘British citizens will require an ETIAS after Brexit’ ETIAS.com, 28 December 2020 (7) ‘British citizens will require an ETIAS after Brexit’ ETIAS.

(6) ‘Population estimates for the UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2019’ Office for National Statistics, 30 December 2020 ‘Population estimates for the UK, England and Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland: mid-2019’ Office for National Statistics

Garden Studio Curtains Upcycling Project in 5 steps

Amanda Howse
-
0
Garden Studio Curtains Upcycling Project in 5 steps

A good creative project we can complete at home could be just what we all need this year to brighten up the holidays. It is all going to be rather different this year and this festive season why not add enjoyment to the days between Christmas and New Year with some sewing using fabrics you may already own.

Garden Studio Mood Board by A Howse
Garden Studio Mood Board by A Howse

Step 1: Designing the scheme for the garden studio

For this garden studio project I wanted to visually bring the garden into the interior of the new textile and craft workroom.

The colours in this wallpaper which is Dahlia Parade in pink grapefruit by Laura Ashley perfectly capture the relaxed vibe and shades of the garden I wanted to introduce into my new space. I used the rolls of quality wall coverings I had already purchased as a starting point for my scheme. I will incorporate the floral print into the design through accessories in the creative outdoor office in the form of covering storage boxes and stationary files.

Garden Studio Plan by A Howse
Garden Studio Plan by A Howse

Step 2: Locating the materials for the soft furnisihngs

In my stash of fabrics I already had a large pair of traditional style curtains with a ruffle top heading that featured a coordinating ‘trailing flower’ pattern in cool deep pinky reds, bold greens, icy pink, white and a cream background. I bought this pair second hand a few years ago but I think originally they were purchased from Blendworth fabrics in Denmead in Hampshire and there is a link to the Blendworth website below.

Dahlia Pink Parade by Laura Ashley
Dahlia Pink Parade by Laura Ashley

Step 3: Constructing the fabric panels

The only problem was that they were very wide and no where near long enough to fit the 2 meter by 2 meter patio doors in the freshly finished study. So I took a large pair of scissors and carefully cut off the gathered tops and set about creating big ‘portrait’ rectangles of fine thick cotton instead of ‘landscape’ shaped drapes. I ironed all the edges with small flat hems.

So that the unique curtains look attractive from the outside and the inside I added deep borders of unusual patterned fabric I had previously purchased from Hobbycraft to some plain Ikea panelled curtains I had saved from a previous project. This cute orchard of trees themed cotton is contemporary and definitely gives the ‘home near the park’ feel I am after.

Blendworth Fabric laid out on bed
Blendworth Fabric laid out on bed

Hobbycraft actually only stock a limited supply of mostly dressmaking fabric on the roll so when I saw this quirky design I knew I had got lucky. A much wider selection of unique contemporary soft furnishing fabrics is available at the independently owned store the Eternal Maker in Chichester, West Sussex and their details are also below.

In order to swiftly invent more a modern looking window treatment I then attached my pretty long floral pieces to a plain pair of Ikea eyelet curtains You can buy a similar Ikea pair for around £25 and I have attached a link below. I used my trusty vintage Husqvarna to sew neat pressed edges around all the sides of each curtain.

Garden Studio Curtains on B and Q Pole System
Garden Studio Curtains on B and Q Pole System

Step 4: First part installation of curtains

It is important to ‘offer up’ the panels onto the curtain pole to make sure the length is long enough to look generous but not too long so they don’t get dirty and look untidy. Mark the ideal length with pins and finish by sewing a neat hem along the bottom of both pieces making sure the length match perfectly.

Using eyelet topped curtains makes hanging a breeze but I asked a helper to kindly assist me so the cream fabric stayed pristine by being held carefully, while I was feeding the large panels onto the pole from each side in sequence.

The poles are sourced from B&Q and they are pre-painted in a ‘whitewashed’ wood finish which blended perfectly with the interior. The range is called Chalki and there are some very reasonably priced pole brackets, rings and finials in the range too.

Curtains hung in nearly finished Garden Studio
Curtains hung in nearly finished Garden Studio

Step 5: Finishing and dressing the patio door and window treatment

After testing the new curtains by pulling and arranging them into pleasing pleats I used some curtain tie backs in a neutral ivory colour I already owned to help keep the drapes perfectly in place on windy days when stepping through the sliding doors.

For this pair we made sure that each side’s last eyelet sat between the pole brackets and the end finials to give a symmetrical finish.

We hope this project inspires you to keep calm and craft during the holidays this year.

 

(1) Blendworth Fabrics, Denmead, Hampshire Blendworth Fabrics, Denmead, Hampshire

(2) Ikea eyelet heading curtains Ikea eyelet heading curtains

(3) Husqvarna sewing machines Husqvarna sewing machines

(4) The Eternal Maker fabric and craft supplies The Eternal Maker

(5) Chalki curtain poles by B&Q Chalki curtain poles by B&Q

Is Christmas Cancelled in the UK?

Amanda Howse
-
0
Is Christmas Cancelled in the UK?

On Monday London, South Essex and South Hertfordshire moved into Tier 3 restrictions. These counties joined Kent whose residents are already undergoing the tougher new measures. The government made this decision in order to battle with an exceptional rise in cases, as hospital admissions rose across the board, just as medical institutions enter their most demanding time of year.

Many adults in the country are debating the wiseness of a Christmas with the relaxation of social distancing rules. Over the 5 days of holidays government advice currently allows up to 3 households to meet up this year. The shops remain bustling with festive purchasers, especially during the weekends in Sussex, which is good for jobs in the local industry. The arts and hospitality sectors have been even harder hit by the unplanned events, due to the pandemic and the mandatory closures in Tier 2 and Tier 3 that has followed in most areas of England.

At the same time it is becoming increasingly clear to smart people that care about their families that the annual traditions of the winter festival need to be very different this month. Leaving gifts for the tree on the doorstep at the homes of our ‘nearest and dearest’ if we live close by to them is prudent. Enjoying a stroll in the countryside or by the sea, is the kindest and best present to give to those we love and want to see keeping well throughout 2021. Packing hot drinks, mince pies or stopping off at a cafe take away stall is a much safer idea than having everyone over to your house to share a meal around the table.

If our relations live further afield then opening presents together with a video call instead is sensible. Where possible using technology to meet online instead is definitely using sound judgement. Creative solutions so far include family quiz games and outdoor carols to entertain the neighbours, which can then be recorded and sent to those at the top of our Christmas list.

What seemed like a jolly idea to give us something to look forward to at a time when many have not seen their elderly and close relations for nearly twelve months, now seems like a risk we would be crazy to take. Rising cases of Covid-19 across the country have closed schools early. The fact that it is possible to be asymptomatic with coronavirus means that it is entirely possible to unwittingly pass on the contagion to anyone that comes into close contact with each other during the five allocated holidays. Boris Johnson’s government tried to give everyone advanced warning so they could plan trains and transport for up to 3 households getting together but now the ‘R’ number is going up again, this optimistic plan just seems too risky.

The idea that 3 households can mix up for up to five days when some areas are doubling with infections as the December weeks go by, is very alarming. Although it is understandable that very old, infirm and vulnerable adults are desperate to see their loved ones, surely the stakes are just to high to take a chance? With a mass vaccination program underway it must be advisable that every adult that possibly can, should postpone getting together for a family party, until later in the Spring. By March the NHS won’t be under pressure from their annual flu season and quite possibly a third wave of Covid-19.

If families can be cautious and strong and wait until we have all had a vaccine and can more easily meet outdoors in a groups, then we will save many hundreds of lives. We can also prevent more further lengthy lockdowns that are crippling the economy and causing hardship for millions on low incomes.

How we socialise this Christmas can prevent people being hospitalised with the dangerous contagion. We can then focus our national resources on treating those with other serious and life threatening illnesses like cancer and heart disease.

Today the government seemed to be backtracking their original guidance but they stopped short of cancelling the ‘relaxation of rules’ over Christmas.

England’s chief medical officer Prof Chris Whitty warned: “Just because you can do something doesn’t mean it’s sensible in any way.” (2)

In Wales a ‘stay at home lockdown’ was announced that will commence as soon as the Christmas period is over closing all non-essential shops. To underline the seriousness of the situation the Welsh government has reduced the number of households that can meet to a maximum of 2 at this special time.

Nicola Sturgeon issued tougher guidance for Scotland urging people to “stay within your own household and your own home. Those who feel it is essential to visit another household indoors should only do so on one of the five days. Any interaction with other households should ideally be outdoors.” (3)

During a phone in on BBC2 radio this afternoon Jeremy Vine summed up the mood by exclaiming “Who is going to be brave and just say Christmas is cancelled?” Being cautious about meeting others particularly our older citizens and those who are vulnerable will ensure they have the chance to have a healthy new year. Plus we will give them the opportunity to have a vaccine and then be able to enjoy a social and merry 2021. Who doesn’t want that freedom and joy for their loved ones?

(1) ‘London, South Essex, and South Hertfordshire to move to Tier 3 restrictions’ Department of Health and Social Care, 14 December 2020 ‘London, South Essex, and South Hertfordshire to move to Tier 3 restrictions’ Department of Health and Social Care

(2) ‘Covid Christmas rules: Boris Johnson calls for shorter, smaller celebrations’ BBC News 16 December 2020 ‘Covid Christmas rules: Boris Johnson calls for shorter, smaller celebrations’ BBC News

(3) ‘Covid: Tougher guidance issued for Christmas in Scotland’, BBC News, 16 December 2020 ‘Covid: Tougher guidance issued for Christmas in Scotland’, BBC News

UK Retail Update: Return of the Pre-Christmas Queues

Amanda Howse
-
0
UK Retail Update: Return of the Pre-Christmas Queues

Shoppers queued outside several stores including Poundland and H&M this weekend in southern England. Across the country all non-essential shops opened for the first time since the second lockdown last Wednesday. Many families were keen to enjoy some weekend retail therapy together in their favourite high street stores, for the first time after a month of restricted commercial activity. This has been due to Prime Minister Boris Johnson and his government ordering a second lockdown to prevent the spread of coronavirus.

Car parks in most retail centres in Sussex and Hampshire were full and some had queues to enter. Men, women and children all headed into towns and cities happy to brave the extremely cold temperatures and hunt for Christmas presents and other items on their winter wish lists.

There was a festive atmosphere as the councils have already turned on the Christmas lights and buskers merrily accompanied the comparatively busy streets. However there are differences to the scene of the usual pre-Christmas rush this year. Everybody is following social distancing rules and keeping away from others that are not in their household or ‘bubble’. Mask wearing is compulsory, unless people are exempt for health reasons or they are under the age of 11.

“There are too many people without masks.” complained a retired lady waiting outside the busy independent beauty boutique Lush.

In Chichester it was heartening to see so many folk wishing to spend their money locally after the city centre has suffered terribly in recent times. The pedestrianized streets make giving others enough space around you when walking along the old flagstones very convenient, compared to some other high streets with limited pavements. The medieval and Georgian architecture is a joy to experience in all seasons. Chichester looks particularly attractive with many windows and doors adorned with pretty wreaths and tiny strings of lights.

There are several empty shops and ‘gaps’ in the usual wide range of products and prices available to consumers in this affluent area of West Sussex. Retail brands that have closed in the last year or so include the big department store House of Fraser which was known locally as Army and Navy. This historic cornucopia had been a fixture for luxury goods impressively situated directly opposite the famous Gothic cathedral since World War II. Laura Ashley has gone and so has Monsoon and Edinburgh Woollen Mill, Oasis, Cath Kidson plus at least half a dozen other independent boutiques over the last 18 months. Some cafes have also not reopened after the first lockdown in March such as the once very popular Pret a Manger. (1)

This week there was great sadness in the textile industry as Arcadia group which is the parent company of TopShop, Miss Selfridge, Dorothy Perkins, Burton, Evans and several other chains collapsed into administration. (2)

The department store Debenhams had 130 ‘anchor’ stores which featured as a cornerstone in many cities throughout the UK. Debenhams announced it is closing as it is unable to find a buyer. This classic destination for mid-range clothing and home stocks many of Arcadias brands in the form of concessions in its many stores. The tragic commercial closure of these iconic brands could lead to up to 25,000 workers losing their jobs. It was not the only department store group to collapse as Beales also confirmed it would cease trading after 139 years. (3) (4)

In England the marketplace for homeware and clothing sales has always been competitive. Now it more important than ever to be innovative, fashionable and desirable to young people who are influenced by what is happening on social media this week and who are looking to pick up the latest trends both online and in physical stores. There is no room for mediaocracy or lack of clear brand direction in any clothing store in the UK this winter.

Rates and rents have been unachievable for several retailers in the south east this year. The unexpected pressures of coronavirus and sudden lockdowns have disrupted supply chains. This has added extra financial pressure for company directors already dealing with the uncertainty of Brexit, a relatively weak pound and high property costs and taxes.

The ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ is in sight in the form of a countrywide campaign to vaccinate nearly the whole nation. It is hoped the mass vaccination program will mean the end of the restrictions associated with Covid-19 by the summer of 2021. There are a few silver linings to this health crisis, that has had severe economic consequences for many businesses and individuals in our society.

Residents in Sussex are shopping locally and seeking out independent companies to support such as The Eternal Maker (fabric shop and haberdashers), Manuka (wholefoods haven and health food store), Drapers Yard (mix of pop up micro businesses enterprises), Lush (handmade beauty boutique) Montezumas (Chocolate retailer) and the Oxmarket (a centre of arts and crafts and gifts). The farmers markets are really popular in London and the south coast. Buying outdoors makes a lot of sense at present, as experts say it is more than 10 times less likely to catch Covid-19 in the fresh air.

High street shops which sell some essential goods like food and toiletries have done very well this year. This is compared to other sectors within the retail and leisure industry who have suffered unexpected closures. Many budget and pound stores have seen an increased footfall of customers, even though there has been many changes and logistical challenges throughout 2020. Boots and the other chemists have been in demand this year as residents avoid using NHS services unnecessarily and head out locally to pick up all their health care products. It makes sense to take supplements and focus on keeping the immune systems in top condition this year.

However restrictions on the number of patrons allowed within the building and into any selling showroom at one time, has limited the number of transactions that can be made. This is especially important during peak times in the trading day and will be leading to lower sales figures this season for some companies. This is a crucial factor for shops with lower price products where there is less margin is to be gained from each sale. Last month New Look; a fashion outfitters which has almost 500 stores, was narrowly saved from collapsing as landlords agreed to charge the trendy chain by a proportion of its turnover, to avoid unaffordable rents. (5)

Councils have issued guidance for retailers and advised managers that they should limit the number of people allowed per aisle. Traditionally ‘wandering around’ the shops and ‘discovering’ a potential new purchase has been part of the joy of shopping. The ‘one way systems’ introduced in nearly all premises prevent some extra impulse sales. The medical advice that “people should not stay in a shop for more than 15 minutes to avoid contracting a virus.” is essential but does not help struggling organisations. The British Medical Journal states that “The UK’s definition of a ‘close contact’ is 15 or more minutes within 2 metres of distance…used for its coronavirus track and trace system, should curb the spread of COVID-19 infection.” (6)

On the bright side it is possible to shop in some places at ‘off peak’ times until December 25th. Big chain stores such as Marks and Spencer, Next and John Lewis will be welcoming those looking for gifts with extended opening hours, in the run up to the holidays. Primark will be opening 24 hours in some stores to manage the flow of custom through its doors.

 

(1) ‘Topshop, Dorothy Perkins and Burton owner goes into administration – your rights’ Steve Noworthy, MSE News, 4 December 2020 ‘Topshop, Dorothy Perkins and Burton owner goes into administration’ Steve Noworthy, MSE News

(2) ‘25,000 jobs at risk as Debenhams closure follows Topshop collapse’ Hanna Ziady, CNN Business, 1 December 2020 ‘25,000 jobs at risk as Debenhams closure follows Topshop collapse’ Hanna Ziady, CNN

(3) ‘866 job cuts as Edinburgh Woollen Mill & Ponden Home stores fall into administration’ Eilas Johnson, Retail Gazette, 7 November 2020 ‘866 job cuts as Edinburgh Woollen Mill & Ponden Home stores fall into administration’ Eilas Johnson, Retail Gazette

(4) ‘List of shops that have collapsed in to administration in 2020 as UK lockdown hits high street’ Hannah Baker, Business Live – Retail & Consumer, 1 December 2020 ‘List of shops that have collapsed in to administration in 2020 as UK lockdown hits high street’ Hannah Baker, Business Live

(5) ‘New Look CVA challenged by landlords’ Jonathan Eley, Financial Times, 1 November 2020 ‘New Look CVA challenged by landlords’ Jonathan Eley, Financial Times

(6) ‘UK ‘close contact’ definition for track and trace should curb COVID-19 spread but many uninfected traced’ British Medical Journal (BMJ) 15 December 2020 ‘UK ‘close contact’ definition for track and trace should curb COVID-19 spread but many uninfected traced’ British Medical Journal

(7) ‘All the shops changing their opening hours after lockdown in England’ Heart radio news 24 November 2020 ‘All the shops changing their opening hours after lockdown in England’ Heart

1...91011...21Page 10 of 21